This got circulated round the team at work and I rather cynically asked "so, what did they predict last year then?" My colleague Pete Mitton took that question and ran with it to produce the following analysis:
OK, as I have a full set of Horizon Reports on my hard disk, here's a summary of their predictions for the years 2004-11.
I've pushed some titles together where the wording is different but the intent is the same (for example they've used mobile computing/mobiles/mobile phones in the past with the same meaning).
The numbers in the table are the time-to-adoption horizon in years.
|New Scholarship and Emerging forms of publication||4-5|
|Massively Multiplayer Educational Gaming||4-5|
|Social Operating Systems||4-5|
|The Personal Web||2-3|
|Simple Augmented Reality||4-5||4-5||2-3||2-3|
|Visual Data Analysis||4-5|
|Scaleable Vector Graphics||1|
|Context Aware Computing aka Geostuff||4-5||4-5||2-3|
Of course, the purpose of a report like this is not to accurately predict the future. The aim is rather to stimulate informed debate about the technologies that are coming up. Within our team, at least, they seem to have succeeded.
I thought, however, that this analysis was interesting enough to share. It provides some context for year's predictions. More generally it shows how difficult it is predict future technology trends.